This is the text of my keynote speech at the 34th Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig, December
We envision a future network with hundreds of millions of active endpoints.
These are not merely passive loads as are most endpoints today, but endpoints that may generate, sense, compute, communicate, and actuate.
They will create both a severe risk and a tremendous opportunity: As infrastructure deployment progresses, the new bottleneck will be the need for overarching frameworks, foundational theories, and practical algorithms to manage a fully [data-centric] power network.
Think of these algorithms as hybrids of distributed networking protocols and financial trading algorithms — they are routing energy as well as participating in a market.
Its source code has been released, making it possible for researchers and others to use this tool to build applications for more efficiently managing energy use among appliances and devices, including heating, ventilation and air conditioning HVAC systems, lighting, electric vehicles and others.
Then it was moving money around. The next big thing will be moving energy around.
Grid-scale energy storage is perhaps the most critical technology problem in clean energy. When I visited the ISOthe operator was just about imploring us to invent better energy storage technologies, because they would change the game entirely. There are various companies pursuing variations on batteries, compressors, flywheels, thermal storage, water pumps, and more.
Particularly charming is Advanced Rail Energy Storagewhose proposal is using lower-cost power to drive a train uphill and then let the train roll downhill to produce power when market prices are high.
IceBank is an air-conditioning solution that makes ice at night [when energy demand is low] to cool buildings during the day.
An energy storage startup can be in the strange position of continually adjusting their product and strategy in response to fluctuations in fossil fuel prices. But as in the case of energy production, there should be a tipping point if storing and reclaiming renewable energy can be made decisively cheaper than generating it from natural gas, and can be scaled up to meet demand.
The core technologies in energy storage tend to be physics-based, but software plays essential roles in the form of design tools, simulation tools, and control systems. Consuming Energy To the right is how the U. We need to erase that. There are a number of emerging ways to reduce this impact.
Electric vehicles are inevitable. Today, powering a car from the grid might not be much cleaner than burning gasoline. But once the grid cleans up, not only will electric cars be cleaner than gas cars, they may be more efficient than mass transit. New kinds of powered vehicles are becoming possible which are more nimble and efficient than cars.
Most trips people take are fairly short.
Coordinated autonomous vehicles could lead to very different ways of moving around people and deliveries. This is basically mobile robotics on a big scale.
Reducing the need for personal transportation via urban design. Among other reasons, this is important to counter the likely tendency of autonomous cars to increase urban sprawlwhich has been strongly correlated with emissions.Abstract: We're living in yesterday's future, and it's nothing like the speculations of our authors and film/TV leslutinsduphoenix.com a working science fiction novelist, I take a professional interest in how we get predictions about the future wrong, and why, so that I can avoid repeating the same mistakes.
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